Alfredo Morelos: Some Quick Praise from a Small Sample

I can assure you there will no tired/borderline racist cliches in this article about Alfredo Morelos. Last season, Rangers had the second highest expected goal total in the SPFL, yet finished third in the table. Whether that is due to bad luck or poor finishing can be debated, but as a result Pedro Caixinha and Rangers decided that they needed to upgrade at striker. Out went Martyn Waghorn and Joe Garner and in came Alfredo Morelos from HJK Helsinki. Last season, Morelos scored 20 goals in all competitions for the Finnish club, but could he continue to score goals in the step up to the SPFL?

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Through six games, Morelos has certainly answered that question with a resounding “yes”. Going into the match-up with Celtic, the Colombian is currently top the goal scoring table in the SPFL Premiership with 6 goals. In addition to having the most goals in the league, Morelos has the highest xG in our model at 3.61, which is 0.77 per 90 minutes and 0.23 per attempt.

Looking at these numbers and his shot map above, it is easy to see why Morelos has had early success with Rangers. the Colombian striker has been able to get into great positions and get off shots with a higher than average scoring probability. 63% of Morelos’ shots this season have come from the Danger Zone, or the area in the box between the ends of the 6-yard box. All but one of his shots have been inside the box thus far. Morelos clearly thrives inside the box, getting shots where they can do the most damage.

SPFL xG leaders

If we compare Morelos’ per 90 numbers for xG to Moussa Dembele’s from last season (0.69 xG per 90), they are similar. Of course, it is way too early to declare Morelos on the same level as Dembele, but if the Colombian striker can continue his output at this pace it would not be unreasonable to compare the two. However, even if Morelos can reach the same rarefied air that Dembele did last season, Rangers still may need someone else to help ease the burden on “El Bufalo”.

Besides Morelos, Josh Windass and Kenny Miller are both among the top 20 xG leaders in the SPFL that are on Rangers. Yet, between Miller and Windass, they haveMorelos 3 1 league goal between them. Morelos may have the talent to carry Rangers for a period of time, but like all players, he could find himself out of favor with the finishing fairy and not find the net for a few matches. If Celtic are without Moussa Dembele, as they have been up until recently, they have the likes of Scott Sinclair and Leigh Griffiths that can help knock in goals. Can Morelos’ Rangers teammates provide the same support? It has yet to be seen.

While six games is a small sample in which we do not want to jump to conclusions, it certainly seems Rangers have upgraded significantly in the striker position from last year with Morelos. With such fine play, the Colombian striker is already subject to transfer rumors. However, if Rangers can hold onto him all season, they can expect to see greatly improved fortunes in front of the goal from last season.

This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.