It seems to be the standard now for Rangers to find themselves in the headlines of Scottish football, both for matters on and off the pitch, on a seemingly weekly basis. From memory, we have had Pedro Caixinha sacking, Carlos Pena being sent back to Mexico and his choice of handkerchief, and Josh Windass’ various hand gestures to fans as examples of off field shenanigans surrounding Rangers this season. However, among the headline grabbing antics at Ibrox, Daniel Candeias has quietly put together one of the better campaigns in the SPFL this season.
I discussed the idea of expected assists last season, but thought this would be a good time to have a refresher on this metric. Expected assists applies the idea of expected goals to those creating the chances. Using the same model we use for xG, xA applies that same number to the player who created the chance via pass. So if Daniel Candeias passes to Alfredo Morelos and Morelos takes a shot worth 0.2 xG off of it, Candeias gets an xA of 0.2. This is an attempt to quantify the type of chances a player creates, rather than something like passes completed percentage.
If we look at the expected assist leaders for the SPFL Premiership this season, we see Candeias is by far and away the league leader. Through February 11th, Daniel Candeias has a total xA of 9.06. The next highest player in the SPFL is at 6.08, quite a ways away. He has an xA per 90 minutes of 0.41, the highest of any player who has played at least 700 minutes this season. He has the highest expected assist numbers from free-kicks, open play, and is 4th in xA in set-pieces. Last season, Niall McGinn had the highest xA in the league and he had an xA per 90 of 0.35, so Candeias is averaging a higher expected assists for every 90 minutes than league leader McGinn did last year. All of this is to say Candeias has been one of the best creators on attack in the SPFL Premiership this season.
Looking at Candeias’ pass map from open play this season above, it is no surprise to see most of his contributions have come from that right wing. From that wing, Candeias has found James Tavernier for 10 key passes, Alfredo Morelos 9 key passes, and Josh Windass for 9 key passes. Most would agree those three are Rangers most dangerous attacking threats, so the Portuguese winger finding them so often has certainly helped lead to his success this year. Furthermore, looking at where the average location for those players were when Candieas set them up for a shot, we see all of three of them located in the “Danger Zone”. This is the area in the 18 yard box in between the 6 yard box and these shots have been found to be the most likely to be scored. When Daniel Candieas is setting up the likes of Morelos and Windass, he is finding them in the most dangerous locations on the pitch where they can score goals.
Against Aberdeen at Pittodrie on December 3, Daniel Candeias sets up the winning goal. He times his run well on the right and puts a first touch low cross perfectly onto the foot of Josh Windass, who is square in the “danger zone” of the box and able to finish, leading to a man hug for Candeias from Graeme Murty. Run on the right, cross into a dangerous position where his teammate is waiting and can easily finish a high xG chance for a goal.
Despite the score finishing 0-0, Candeias had a very good match against Celtic in December. We see another example of what he has done so well in that game. His cross finds an open James Tavernier in the heart of the danger zone, where Tavernier’s shot is only kept out by a good save by Craig Gordon. Another cross on the right to a teammate in the danger zone, who forces a good save from the keeper from a high xG chance.
This season, most of the more ardent Twitter debates in Scottish football have been discussing if certain Rangers players are actually good. Never-ending feuds about whether the likes of Josh Windass and Carlos Pena are good players or not are found at various corners of the great time waster known as Twitter. Daniel Candeias thankfully does not draw such hard line opinions. Most seem to know he is valuable to Rangers success this season. However, it is a bit surprising his praises have not been sung at such a level as they have with someone like Alfredo Morelos by Rangers supporters. Both have been key cogs to Rangers attack this season and Rangers will need them to continue their form if they are looking to finish second.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.